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☆ Morning Bid: Markets wary Powell may undermine rate-cut bets
▼ + stars: | 2023-12-01 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell answers a question during a press conference at the Federal Reserve in Washington, U.S., November 1, 2023. The disconnect between financial markets and central banks has only deepened as central banks push back against talk of rate cuts while markets take in the relatively more benign inflation data of recent weeks. That helped to embolden markets to take on rate-cut bets. Markets are now pricing in a 46% chance of the central bank cutting rates in March, the CME FedWatch tool showed. Speakers: Bank of England MPC member Megan Greene, ECB President Christine Lagarde, Fed Chair Jerome Powell.

Persons: Jerome Powell, Kevin Lamarque, Ankur Banerjee, Christopher Waller, Powell, Elon Musk, Megan Greene, Christine Lagarde, Edmund Klamann Organizations: Federal Reserve, REUTERS, Ankur, Fed, ECB, Reuters Graphics Reuters, Reuters, Bank of England, Thomson Locations: Washington , U.S, Europe, Asia, France, UK, Germany, Singapore

☆ Morning Bid: November bids adieu with inflation data, OPEC
▼ + stars: | 2023-11-30 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +5 min

Traders work on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) in New York City, U.S., September 26, 2023. With signs of turn emerging in Federal Reserve policy guidance and October PCE inflation readings set to encourage that later in the day, rate cut fever was in full flow across the Atlantic too. Headline annual inflation in the bloc fell as low as 2.4% - within arm's length of the ECB's 2% target. Later on Thursday, U.S. PCE inflation for the prior month is pencilled to fall 3.0% from 3.4% - with a core also ebbing to 3.5%. "Monetary policy is in a good place," Cleveland Fed President Loretta Mester said on Wednesday, echoing comments from previously hawkish Fed governor Christopher Waller the previous day.

Persons: Brendan McDermid, Mike Dolan, policymaker Fabio Panetta, Loretta Mester, Christopher Waller, John Williams, Christine Lagarde, Megan Greene, Kroger, Bernadette Baum Organizations: New York Stock Exchange, REUTERS, Treasury, Federal, European Central Bank, Bank of Italy, policymaker, U.S ., ECB, Cleveland Fed, Wall, OPEC, Dallas Fed, PMI, York Federal, Bank of England, Academy Sports, Rock Biotech, Titan, Reuters, Thomson Locations: New York City, U.S, China, Canada, Vienna, Automotive, Duluth, BOS, Jan

☆ Bank of England halts run of interest rate hikes as economy slows
▼ + stars: | 2023-09-21 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

A general view of the Bank of England (BoE) building, the BoE confirmed to raise interest rates to 1.75%, in London, Britain, August 4, 2022. A day after a surprise slowing in Britain's fast pace of price growth, the BoE's Monetary Policy Committee voted by a narrow margin of 5-4 to keep Bank Rate at 5.25%. "There are increasing signs of some impact of tighter monetary policy on the labour market and on momentum in the real economy more generally," the MPC said in a statement. The BoE's decision to pause its rate hikes came a day after the U.S. Federal Reserve also opted to keep borrowing costs on hold. Last week, the European Central Bank raised rates but suggested it might be the last for now.

Persons: BoE, Maja Smiejkowska, William Schomberg, Andy Bruce, Suban Abdulla, Jon Cunliffe, Megan Greene, Jonathan Haskel, Catherine Mann, Andrew Bailey, Bailey, BRITAIN BOE Organizations: Bank of England, REUTERS, MPC, U.S . Federal Reserve, European Central Bank, Thomson Locations: London, Britain

A day after Britain's fast pace of price growth unexpectedly slowed, the BoE's Monetary Policy Committee voted by the narrowest margin of 5-4 to keep Bank Rate at 5.25%. But rate futures suggested they still saw a 50% chance of Bank Rate rising to 5.5% by the end of this year. Britain's economy, hit hard by Brexit, the COVID-19 pandemic and the surge in gas prices triggered by Russia's invasion of Ukraine, has been struggling with the highest inflation rate in the Group of Seven. But growth remains fragile, heightening the risk that the BoE's 14 back-to-back rate hikes will push the economy into a recession. Last week, the European Central Bank raised rates but suggested its move might be the last for now.

Persons: Andrew Bailey, Jon Cunliffe, Megan Greene, Jonathan Haskel, Catherine Mann, BoE, Reuters Graphics Sterling, Bailey, Rishi Sunak, Peter Nicholls, Frances Haque, Reuters Graphics Bailey, Yael Selfin, Hugh Gimber, William Schomberg, Catherine Evans Organizations: Bank of England, Reuters Graphics, U.S ., MPC, REUTERS, Santander UK, IF, U.S . Federal Reserve, European Central Bank, KPMG, Investors, Bank of, Morgan Asset Management, Thomson Locations: Ukraine, London, Britain

☆ Bank of England set to raise rates for 14th time in a row
▼ + stars: | 2023-08-02 | by ( David Milliken | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

A pedestrian carrying an umbrella walks near the Bank of England in the City of London, Britain, July 30, 2023. Market expectations for peak Bank Rate reached 6.5% on July 11 after data showed record wage growth before falling back to 5.75% after a sharp decline in consumer price inflation. Investors see a two-in-three chance of the BoE raising Bank Rate to 5.25% on Thursday but for most economists polled by Reuters the BoE's decision is finely balanced. However, some BoE critics argue it risks causing an unnecessary downturn, and that higher rates are a poor tool to tackle inflation caused by higher food and energy prices. "The main winners are banks, whose profits have flourished thanks to higher rates," said Fran Boait, co-executive director of campaign group Positive Money.

Persons: Hollie Adams, Bailey, BoE, Rishi Sunak, James Smith, Smith, Andrew Bailey, Dave Ramsden, Swati Dhingra, Silvana Tenreyro, Megan Greene, Fran Boait, ING's Smith, David Milliken, William Schomberg, Giles Elgood Organizations: Bank of England, City of, REUTERS, U.S . Federal Reserve, European Central Bank, Mortgage, Investors, Reuters, ING, Kroll Institute, Monetary, Thomson Locations: City, City of London, Britain, Germany

☆ Bank of England set to raise rates to 5.25% as high inflation persists
▼ + stars: | 2023-07-28 | by ( David Milliken | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +5 min

Expectations for peak BoE rates reached 6.5% on July 11 after data showed record wage growth. But they fell back after a bigger-than-expected decline in consumer price inflation. Still, that inflation rate is nearly four times the BoE's 2% target and double the rate in the United States. Following the end of Silvana Tenreyro's tenure on the BoE's Monetary Policy Committee, fellow external member Swati Dhingra is likely to be alone in making the case that producer price inflation - rather than wage growth - is a better guide to future consumer price inflation trends. Annual producer price inflation fell to 0.1% in June, its lowest since December 2020, down from a high of nearly 20% last July, which it hit just a few months before CPI peaked at 11.1%.

Persons: BoE, Andrew Goodwin, BoE Governor Andrew Bailey, Dave Ramsden, Ramsden, Peter Schaffrik, Cathal Kennedy, Silvana Tenreyro's, Swati Dhingra, Megan Greene, Bailey, Huw Pill, David Milliken, Kirsten Donovan Organizations: Bank of England, U.S . Federal Reserve, European Central Bank, Oxford Economics, Reuters, MPC, HSBC, RBC, Committee, Kroll Institute, Tenreyro, Monetary, Thomson Locations: Britain, United States, Germany

☆ Bank of England poised to raise rates after inflation shock
▼ + stars: | 2023-06-21 | by ( David Milliken | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

Economists polled by Reuters last week were unanimous that the BoE would raise rates to 4.75%, their highest since 2008, from 4.5%. But after inflation held at 8.7% in May, financial markets priced in a nearly 50% chance that the BoE would opt for a bigger move and raise rates by half a percentage point. "The UK has a uniquely bad inflation problem," Krishna Guha, a vice chairman at U.S. investment banking advisory firm Evercore, said. Core inflation - which strips out more volatile prices to show an underlying trend - rose to a 31-year high in May. "Unfortunately, the Bank of England is in a situation where they will have to hike until something breaks," he said.

Persons: BoE, Tomasz Wieladek, Rowe Price, Krishna Guha, Evercore, Rishi Sunak, Andrew Bailey, Megan Greene, Wieladek, David Milliken, Kirsten Donovan Organizations: Bank of England, Reuters, U.S . Federal, European Central Bank, Sky News, MPC, Nomura, Thomson Locations: Ukraine, United States

☆ Bank of England set to raise rates to 4.75% as inflation slow to fall
▼ + stars: | 2023-06-16 | by ( David Milliken | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +5 min

However, Neiss thinks the BoE is unlikely to raise interest rates as much as markets have priced in. In a Reuters poll this week, economists predicted the BoE would raise interest rates just twice more, taking rates to a peak of 5% by August or September. The BoE faces three big challenges when assessing how much more rate tightening it needs to do. Fewer households have mortgages and more are on fixed rates - so a key channel for higher interest rates to affect the economy now operates with a delay. "If the Bank of England accelerated policy tightening now, that would smack of panic or a loss of control," McGuire said.

Persons: Henry Nicholls, BoE, BoE Governor Andrew Bailey, Bailey, Katharine Neiss, Neiss, Christine Lagarde, Richard McGuire, Swati Dhingra, Silvana Tenreyro, Megan Greene, Tenreyro, McGuire, Yoruk Bahceli, David Milliken, Toby Chopra Organizations: Bank of England, REUTERS, of, U.S . Federal Reserve, European Central Bank, Italy, Fed, ECB, Reuters, homebuyers, Rabobank, MPC, Thomson Locations: City, London, Britain, of England

☆ Bank of England to press on with rate hikes, peak at 5.00% in Q3
▼ + stars: | 2023-06-14 | by ( Jonathan Cable | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

In December 2021 the BoE was one of the first major central banks to draw a line under its ultra-loose pandemic-era monetary policy. It has now raised borrowing costs by 440 basis points across 12 consecutive meetings in modest-sized rate rises. All 64 economists polled June 12-14 said the BoE would add another 25 basis points to Bank Rate on June 22, taking it to 4.75%. A majority of economists surveyed, 52 of 64, said Bank Rate will have peaked by end-August with the median forecast putting it at 5.00%. Although starting later, both the Fed and the European Central Bank have largely been raising rates in greater magnitudes than the BoE.

Persons: BoE, Ellie Henderson, BoE Governor Andrew Bailey, Jonathan Haskel, Catherine Mann, Megan Greene, Silvana Tenreyro, Stefan Koopman, Investec's Henderson, Jonathan Cable, Aditi Verma, Anitta Sunil, Ross Finley, Catherine Evans Organizations: Bank of England, Monetary, Committee, Rabobank, U.S . Federal, Fed, European Central Bank, Reuters, Thomson Locations: Investec

LONDON, June 13 (Reuters) - Incoming Bank of England rate-setter Megan Greene signalled on Tuesday that the central bank may have a tough job returning British inflation to its 2% target, even if it drops quickly at first from double-digit figures. British inflation fell in April from double digits to 8.7% but this was still jointly the highest reading among Group of Seven countries, along with Italy. Short-dated British government bond yields rose to their highest level since 2008 as Greene spoke. She described inflation expectations in Britain as pretty well-anchored, but said there were lessons from the 1970s on how not to conduct monetary policy. Greene will replace MPC member Silvana Tenreyro, who has voted against the BoE's rate increases in recent months.

Persons: Megan Greene, Greene, Kroll, BoE, Silvana Tenreyro, Kylie MacLellan, Suban Abdulla, Sarah Young, Catherine Evans Organizations: Incoming Bank of, Monetary, parliament's, MPC, Thomson Locations: Italy, Britain, U.S

☆ Inflation is cooling — but many items aren’t cheaper. Here’s why
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-10 | by ( Elisabeth Buchwald | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +4 min

Instead, the pace of price increases slowed from a year ago. But they may be suffering from even bigger price increases for margarine, which was up 24%. Poorer households spend a greater portion of their income on unavoidable expenses like food and gas, which makes them more vulnerable to price increases. Not everything is responding well to interest rate hikesThe Federal Reserve spent the past year hiking interest rates in the interest of lowering inflation. When the Fed raises interest rates, it costs more for banks and other lenders to borrow money.

☆ Wages and Prices Slow Unevenly, Reflecting ‘Rocky and Bumpy’ Economy
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-28 | by ( Ben Casselman | Jeanna Smialek | ) www.nytimes.com time to read: +1 min

Inflation isn’t as high as it was last year. The economy is slowing down. But none of this is happening as quickly or as smoothly as Federal Reserve officials would like. “We knew that inflation was going to be rocky and bumpy,” said Megan Greene, chief economist for the Kroll Institute. That was the slowest pace of inflation in nearly two years, down from a peak of 7 percent last summer.

☆ The Fed will continue rate hike path 'full steam ahead': Kroll's Megan Greene
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-31 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailThe Fed will continue rate hike path 'full steam ahead': Kroll's Megan GreeneTyler Goodspeed, Hoover Institution fellow, and Megan Greene, Kroll global chief economist, join 'Squawk Box' to discuss what investors are trading on today, whether inflation should be the most important thing for the Fed, and more.

☆ Watch CNBC's full interview with Hoover Institute's Tyler Goodspeed and Kroll Global's Megan Greene
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-31 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailWatch CNBC's full interview with Hoover Institute's Tyler Goodspeed and Kroll Global's Megan GreeneTyler Goodspeed, Hoover Institution fellow, and Megan Greene, Kroll global chief economist, join 'Squawk Box' to discuss what investors are trading on today, whether inflation should be the most important thing for the Fed, and more.

Economists who obsess about tightly calibrating the quantity of money in the system balk at QE as a tool. Two weeks of turmoil in mid-sized U.S. banks follow just nine months in which the Fed had been winding down its outsize balance sheet that peaked near $9 trillion during the pandemic. "Illiquidity episodes may force central banks to slow the process of reserve withdrawal. Reuters GraphicsILLIQUIDTY EPISODESThis could become a trap that prevents normalisation of the balance sheet longer term, they said. Better-measured and more forward-looking liquidity regulations, incentives for longer-duration deposits during QE bouts and rethinking stress tests were all options, they wrote.

☆ Jerome Powell should go with 25 basis points and stay with the strategy, says Brean's John Ryding
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-14 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailJerome Powell should go with 25 basis points and stay with the strategy, says Brean's John RydingMegan Greene, Kroll Global chief economist and Brown senior fellow, and John Ryding, Brean Capital chief economic advisor, join 'Squawk Box' to discuss their thoughts on what the Federal Reserve should do in taming inflation, what caused Silicon Valley Bank collapse, and more.

"It's going to take some time" for disinflation to spread through the economy, Powell said in a news conference following the Fed's latest quarter-point interest rate increase. He said he expects a couple more rate hikes still to go, and, "given our outlook, I just I don't see us cutting rates this year." Rate cuts, they expect, will start in September - a view Powell said Wednesday is driven by the expectation of fast-receding inflation. Since the 1990s, the interlude between rate hikes and rate cuts has varied from as long as 18 months in 1997-1998 to as short as five months in 1995. The Fed, Powell said Wednesday, cannot risk doing too little.

☆ Recession this year will be short and shallow, says Kroll Global's Greene
▼ + stars: | 2023-01-04 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailRecession this year will be short and shallow, says Kroll Global's GreeneMegan Greene, Kroll Global chief economist and Brown senior fellow, joins 'Squawk Box' to discuss if 2023 will be a year of declining inflation, who to blame for recent market action and more.

☆ Inflation struggles, China's Covid: What to watch for in the economy in 2023
▼ + stars: | 2022-12-31 | by ( Https | Media-Cldnry.S-Nbcnews.Com Image Upload Newscms Shannon-Pettypiece-Circle-Byline-Template.Jpg | Shannon Pettypiece | ) www.nbcnews.com time to read: +8 min

But economists and CEOs warn the economy will remain on shaky ground in 2023, which could mean another turbulent year for consumers. After months of strict lockdowns that caused rolling disruptions to supply chains and greatly stifled demand from Chinese consumers, China began lifting its Covid restrictions in recent weeks. “The most important thing for 2023 is by far China’s Covid policy,” Dan Klein, the head of energy pathways at S&P Global Commodity Insights. Covid infections have continued to shut down factories around the world, aggravated by China’s loosening of Covid restrictions. In the meantime, with demand outstripping supply, car prices are up by nearly 24% over the past two years.

☆ Economists think inflation has peaked. Main Street is preparing for more pain
▼ + stars: | 2022-12-10 | by ( Ian Thomas | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

An overwhelming majority (78%) of America's entrepreneurs say they expect inflation to continue to rise, according to the quarterly CNBC|SurveyMonkey Small Business Survey. That is effectively unchanged from last quarter when 77% said they expected inflation to continue to rise. Regardless of the economic tailwinds, inflation remains top of mind for small business owners. More small business owners (45%) now say inflation is the biggest risk to their business than tracked in any of the previous recent quarterly survey. The CNBC|SurveyMonkey Small Business Survey for Q4 2022 was conducted Nov. 9-Nov. 16 among nearly 2,600 small business owners.

☆ Peak inflation is likely behind us, says Kroll Global chief economist
▼ + stars: | 2022-12-09 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailPeak inflation is likely behind us, says Kroll Global chief economistMegan Greene, chief economist at Kroll Global, and Kristen Bitterly, Citi Global Wealth Management's head of North America investments, and CNBC's Steve Liesman join CNBC's 'Squawk Box' to react to November's key producer price index.

☆ Why stocks aren't down even more on Friday's hot inflation report
▼ + stars: | 2022-12-09 | by ( Bob Pisani | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

Will this data point suddenly make the Federal Reserve raise 75 basis points next week, versus the 50 basis point hike expected? (1 basis point equals 0.01%.) The dollar, which has been in a notable downtrend for the last month, rallied initially, then fell back. The managers collectively expect earnings to rise by an average of 10% next year (71% expected earnings to rise). Blackrock, in a pessimistic 2023 outlook, said "We find that earnings expectations don't yet price in even a mild recession."

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